Hypothesis Testing - Revision history

Admin: /* Addendum: General Hypotheses */

2016-10-04T15:30:23Z

‎Addendum: General Hypotheses

Admin: /* Addendum */

2016-10-04T15:29:28Z

‎Addendum

Admin at 15:29, 4 October 2016

2016-10-04T15:29:12Z

Admin at 21:31, 30 June 2016

2016-06-30T21:31:30Z

Admin: /* Hypothesis 3: Scytale transposition was applied to the plaintext prior to homophonic substitution */

2016-06-30T10:19:14Z

‎Hypothesis 3: Scytale transposition was applied to the plaintext prior to homophonic substitution

Admin: /* Generated ciphers */

2016-06-30T10:16:50Z

‎Generated ciphers

Admin: /* Analysis and conclusions */

2016-06-30T10:16:25Z

‎Analysis and conclusions

Admin: /* Analysis and conclusions */

2016-06-30T10:14:54Z

‎Analysis and conclusions

Admin: /* Hypothesis 2: Columnar transposition was applied to the plaintext prior to homophonic substitution */

2016-06-30T10:13:45Z

‎Hypothesis 2: Columnar transposition was applied to the plaintext prior to homophonic substitution

Admin at 10:10, 30 June 2016

2016-06-30T10:10:06Z

@@ Line 115: / Line 115: @@
 = Addendum: General Hypotheses =
 Here are some more general hypotheses about Z340:
-== Z340 contains a real plaintext message and is enciphered using homophonic substitution, similar to the construction of Z408. ==
+* Z340 contains a real plaintext message and is enciphered using homophonic substitution, similar to the construction of Z408.
-== Z340 contains a real plaintext message and is enciphered using some other undiscovered method  ==
+* Z340 contains a real plaintext message and is enciphered using some other undiscovered method
-== Z340 contains no real plaintext (i.e., Zodiac deliberately created a fake cipher to keep everyone busy) ==
+* Z340 contains no real plaintext (i.e., Zodiac deliberately created a fake cipher to keep everyone busy)
-== Z340 contains a real plaintext message but its ngram statistics are anomalous, preventing discovery of the solution [http://www.zodiackillersite.com/viewtopic.php?p=49909#p49909 (here's an example of such a message)].
+* Z340 contains a real plaintext message but its ngram statistics are anomalous, preventing discovery of the solution [http://www.zodiackillersite.com/viewtopic.php?p=49909#p49909 (here's an example of such a message)].
-== Z340 contains a real plaintext message and is enciphered using some commonly known method, but Zodiac made sufficient mistakes to prevent recovery of the plaintext.
+* Z340 contains a real plaintext message and is enciphered using some commonly known method, but Zodiac made sufficient mistakes to prevent recovery of the plaintext.

@@ Line 113: / Line 113: @@
 * Since the scytale key has length between 2 and 170 for each of these ciphers, they should be easy to solve by generating all the possible untranspositions and running them through an automatic solver program.  There are only 169 possible untranspositions per cipher.
 * Or, perhaps the hillclimber suggested in Hypothesis 2 could be effective.
-= Addendum =
+= Addendum: General Hypotheses =
 Here are some more general hypotheses about Z340:
 == Z340 contains a real plaintext message and is enciphered using homophonic substitution, similar to the construction of Z408. ==

← Older revision		Revision as of 15:29, 4 October 2016
Line 113:		Line 113:
	* Since the scytale key has length between 2 and 170 for each of these ciphers, they should be easy to solve by generating all the possible untranspositions and running them through an automatic solver program. There are only 169 possible untranspositions per cipher.		* Since the scytale key has length between 2 and 170 for each of these ciphers, they should be easy to solve by generating all the possible untranspositions and running them through an automatic solver program. There are only 169 possible untranspositions per cipher.
	* Or, perhaps the hillclimber suggested in Hypothesis 2 could be effective.		* Or, perhaps the hillclimber suggested in Hypothesis 2 could be effective.
		+	= Addendum =
		+	Here are some more general hypotheses about Z340:
		+	== Z340 contains a real plaintext message and is enciphered using homophonic substitution, similar to the construction of Z408. ==
		+	== Z340 contains a real plaintext message and is enciphered using some other undiscovered method ==
		+	== Z340 contains no real plaintext (i.e., Zodiac deliberately created a fake cipher to keep everyone busy) ==
		+	== Z340 contains a real plaintext message but its ngram statistics are anomalous, preventing discovery of the solution [http://www.zodiackillersite.com/viewtopic.php?p=49909#p49909 (here's an example of such a message)].
		+	== Z340 contains a real plaintext message and is enciphered using some commonly known method, but Zodiac made sufficient mistakes to prevent recovery of the plaintext.

@@ Line 53: / Line 53: @@
 This hypothesis is considered because Zodiac used it for Z408, and Z340 has similar qualities.
 == Generated ciphers ==
-* [http://zodiackillerciphers.com/hypothesis-testing/dump-1.txt 111 generated ciphers in symbolic and numeric formats]
+* 111 ciphers under this hypothesis were generated
 == Analysis and conclusions ==
 * I expect that running these through zkdecrypto, azdecrypt, or similar automatic solving program will easily solve these ciphers.
@@ Line 68: / Line 70: @@
 This hypothesis is considered because It could explain the unusual spike in the number of repeating bigrams in Z340 at period 19.
 == Generated ciphers ==
-* [http://zodiackillerciphers.com/hypothesis-testing/dump-2.txt 109 generated ciphers in symbolic and numeric formats]
+* 109 ciphers under this hypothesis were generated
 == Analysis and conclusions ==
 * Test ciphers with shorter key lengths should be easy to solve by generating all the possible untranspositions.
@@ Line 103: / Line 107: @@
 This hypothesis is considered because it could explain the unusual spike in the number of repeating bigrams in Z340 at period 19.
 == Generated ciphers ==
-* [http://zodiackillerciphers.com/hypothesis-testing/dump-3.txt 119 generated ciphers in symbolic and numeric format]
+* 119 ciphers under this hypothesis were generated
+** [http://zodiackillerciphers.com/hypothesis-testing/index-1.html Interactive explorer showing ciphers and features]
 == Analysis and conclusions ==
 * Since the scytale key has length between 2 and 170 for each of these ciphers, they should be easy to solve by generating all the possible untranspositions and running them through an automatic solver program.  There are only 169 possible untranspositions per cipher.
 * Or, perhaps the hillclimber suggested in Hypothesis 2 could be effective.

← Older revision		Revision as of 10:19, 30 June 2016
Line 106:		Line 106:

	== Analysis and conclusions ==		== Analysis and conclusions ==
−	~~TODO~~	+	* Since the scytale key has length between 2 and 170 for each of these ciphers, they should be easy to solve by generating all the possible untranspositions and running them through an automatic solver program. There are only 169 possible untranspositions per cipher.
		+	* Or, perhaps the hillclimber suggested in Hypothesis 2 could be effective.

@@ Line 93: / Line 93: @@
 ** 20, '''2432902008176640000'''
 * For larger n, a hillclimbing approach is probably required to explore the search space of possible solutions.  Also, perhaps some statistics about the candidate untranspositions may help guide the search (for example, detection of repeating fragments and/or symbol cycles).
 = Hypothesis 3: Scytale transposition was applied to the plaintext prior to homophonic substitution =

@@ Line 72: / Line 72: @@
 * Test ciphers with shorter key lengths should be easy to solve by generating all the possible untranspositions.
 * However, as key length increases, the number of possible untranspositions increases significantly and makes brute force solves intractable.
 ** key length, '''number of possible untranspositions'''
 ** 2, '''2'''
@@ Line 93: / Line 92: @@
 ** 19, '''121645100408832000'''
 ** 20, '''2432902008176640000'''
 = Hypothesis 3: Scytale transposition was applied to the plaintext prior to homophonic substitution =